Bitcoin has recorded a considerable increase since the beginning of 2023, with prices beginning to climb again after the difficult months of 2022. However, the regulatory pressures left their mark as well, and the market was more uncertain than it was expected to be. Regardless, exchanges like Binance are still recording engagement from users looking to buy Bitcoin before the bullish rally picks up speed and the prices become considerably higher. Now is the best time to boost your portfolio to achieve revenue in the long term.
However, some investors are still uncertain, considering that the market continues to record fluctuations. The fact that Bitcoin couldn’t gain a firm foothold and pick up speed is a clear sign that the market is still struggling to recover. For this reason, it’s essential to be mindful of any changes within the marketplace to have a successful outcome.
Rallies selling rapidly
After a considerable surge since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has faced significant resistance over the past few months. It struggled to stay above the $30k milestone for a while before sinking again. While the trend has started showing signs since April, it has become more visible around mid-June. Around that time, the crypto reversed quite abruptly anytime there was a breakthrough above $30,000.
The most notable incident was on July 13th, when BTC surged above $31,800 in the aftermath of a favorable ruling from the US Securities and Exchange Commission. However, in just a few hours, both the $31,000 and the $30,000 levels caved in. In just a few days, Bitcoin was below $29,000. On the 8th of August, the price managed to climb to $30,100. However, the sudden movement was followed by a downward shift of over 1% to the $29,700 range just as swiftly.
One of the more positive aspects of the fluctuations is that they have generally been short-term. Anytime there was a decline under the $29k mark, a rebound followed shortly. However, that’s not enough for many investors to restore their confidence in the marketplace’s potential.
Some analysts believe that the current regulatory situation is primarily to blame for the rally struggling to remain stable. Many investors have likely chosen to keep a safe distance until they can see whether or not the Securities and Exchange Commission will allow cryptocurrencies on the exchange-traded fund.
Until more information is available and traders are aware of what they should do to secure their assets, the market will likely remain stuck. The stagnating prices are certainly not ideal, but they’re also preferable compared to the value plummeting events of last year’s bear market. The market will likely remain flat until the SEC reaches a unanimous decision.
The next halving event on the Bitcoin blockchain is expected in 2024. Generally, before any halving, the market changes as miners seek profits. This will naturally leave a mark on the overall market sentiment as well. According to some research, miners are likely to gain profits following the rallies and then step back during the times when the price point becomes flat again.
There’s also a lack of significant participation from retailers, which further affects engagement rates and the prices themselves. However, many have also pointed out that, historically, these patterns were followed by solid bull markets, and it’s likely that the same thing will happen this time as well. Yet, other investors are quick to say that the market and macroeconomic conditions are not the same as in the past, and this can also have an effect.
However, the Greed and Fear Index indicates that the prices might record a price surge soon enough. The figures that come out of the index have generally been accurate, as it predicted trend reversals before. Investor sentiment showed 90% for optimism and greed and under 10% for fear and pessimism. As a general rule, optimism is a clear indicator of market tops.
The indicator shows a decidedly bullish tendency following a consolidation event that lasted approximately four weeks. That means that Bitcoin could shortly resume its upward journey. The 21-day simple moving average, also known as the SMA, has coincided with either bearish or bullish trends turning back.
Traditional market volatility has also impacted Bitcoin over the past few weeks, given the still difficult situation the economy is dealing with. The deadline for whether or not Bitcoin will be approved for the ETF decision is August 13th. However, since that will be on a Sunday, some researchers estimate that the answer will arrive on Friday. Others take a more pessimistic view, claiming that it’s more likely that the decision will be postponed until a later time.
That’s because if the Commission endorses the ETFs, it will likely approve more than one each time, so there’s the issue of accurately communicating the message.
The bottom line
Bitcoin is still trying to regain its strength following the difficult 2022, and there’ll still be some time until it returns to its full force. Until the regulatory issues are sorted out, it’s unlikely that there will be any notable breakthrough. According to some analysts, the price will likely see its next and last significant drop in September.
Although the bulls are eyeing the $30k level and above, others are looking lower. There’s a pretty solid chance, of around 50%, that the price might drop to $25,000 or even below before the end of the next month, which could be the last drop before the bull run begins in earnest. According to this theory, the upswing that has taken over the market so far has been nothing but an appetizer.
September has traditionally been a difficult month for BTC. Since 2017, the price has consistently been lower at the end of the month than it was at the beginning. August is different, as there have been both gains and losses throughout the years during the last month of summer, albeit modest on both sides.
With that being said, some expect the price to reach a monumental $100,000 by 2026 or in less than three years from now on. It’s difficult to say if this is a realistic figure, and investors will have to wait until then to see for themselves.